Participatory Modeling of Endangered Wildlife Systems: Simulating the Sage-grouse and Land Use in Central Washington

The Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) occupies the sage brush habitats of Western North America. Large population declines in the last several decades have made it a candidate for possible listing under the Endangered Species Act. Listing was recently avoided in part because seventy local working groups are developing long-range management plans in conjunction with federal and local agencies. The Foster Creek Conservation District, a working group in Douglas County, Washington, saw the potential for system dynamics to synthesize known sage-grouse dynamics and local land use patterns to support development of their Habitat Conservation Plan and subsequent land management decisions. The resulting model is providing insights into the cropland and shrub steppe ecosystems of Douglas County and the management scenarios which may prevent the sage-grouse from an endangered status. The model is designed to facilitate and support land use management decisions through the collaborative exploration of model parameters and simulated scenarios.